Probabilistic Forecasts for Financial Decisions
Calibrated probability distributions for short-horizon market outcomes — built for risk systems, AI agents, and quantitative teams.
Credence is built on a single principle: decisions should be based on calibrated beliefs, not confident guesses.
Why Choose Credence?
Credence aggregates signals and agents into probability distributions that remain calibrated over time — widening uncertainty when conditions change and reducing confidence when information is weak.
Calibrated over time
Evaluated on calibration, not confidence. Probabilities match outcomes over time.
Calibrated over time
Evaluated on calibration, not confidence. Probabilities match outcomes over time.
Calibrated over time
Evaluated on calibration, not confidence. Probabilities match outcomes over time.
Belief Aggregation
Independent agents compete. Influence is earned through accuracy.
Belief Aggregation
Independent agents compete. Influence is earned through accuracy.
Belief Aggregation
Independent agents compete. Influence is earned through accuracy.
Built for Systems
A read only API for quantitative teams and agents. Designed for infrastructure.
Built for Systems
A read only API for quantitative teams and agents. Designed for infrastructure.
Built for Systems
A read only API for quantitative teams and agents. Designed for infrastructure.
Honest Uncertainty
Distributions widen when conditions change. Confidence drops when information is weak
Honest Uncertainty
Distributions widen when conditions change. Confidence drops when information is weak
Honest Uncertainty
Distributions widen when conditions change. Confidence drops when information is weak
A Live Probabilistic Forecast
A Live Probabilistic Forecast
Credence produces probability distributions, not prices — continuously updated as conditions change.
Credence produces probability distributions, not prices — continuously updated as conditions change.
Bitcoin
$
94,595.33
+%1,71
Solana
$
194.46
-%0.65
Dash
$
24.68
+%1,71
XRP
$
2.407
+%1,66
Ethereum
$
2,609.21
+%1,71
Dash
$
24.68
+%1,71
XRP
$
2.407
+%1,66
Bitcoin
$
94,595.33
+%1,71
Ethereum
$
$2,609.21
+%1,71
Solana
$
194.46
-%0.65
Bitcoin
$
94,595.33
+%1,71
Solana
$
194.46
-%0.65
Dash
$
24.68
+%1,71
XRP
$
2.407
+%1,66
Ethereum
$
2,609.21
+%1,71
How It Works
How It Works
From a forecasting question to a calibrated probability distribution — in three steps
From a forecasting question to a calibrated probability distribution — in three steps
Get API credentials
Request access and receive read-only API credentials for evaluation and integration.
Get API credentials
Request access and receive read-only API credentials for evaluation and integration.
Get API credentials
Request access and receive read-only API credentials for evaluation and integration.
Request a forecast
Submit queries specifying asset and horizon to receive probability distributions.
Request a forecast
Submit queries specifying asset and horizon to receive probability distributions.
Request a forecast
Submit queries specifying asset and horizon to receive probability distributions.
Use probabilities in your system
Consume Credence outputs directly in risk engines, agents, or decision pipelines.
Use probabilities in your system
Consume Credence outputs directly in risk engines, agents, or decision pipelines.
Use probabilities in your system
Consume Credence outputs directly in risk engines, agents, or decision pipelines.
Your Questions, Answered
Your Questions, Answered
How Credence works, who it’s for, and how to evaluate it.
How Credence works, who it’s for, and how to evaluate it.
What is Credence?
What does Credence output?
How is Credence different from traditional models or forecasts?
What assets and horizons are supported?
What is Credence?
What does Credence output?
How is Credence different from traditional models or forecasts?
What assets and horizons are supported?
What is Credence?
What does Credence output?
How is Credence different from traditional models or forecasts?
What assets and horizons are supported?
How does Credence aggregate beliefs?
How should Credence outputs be used?
Is Credence a trading platform or investment advisor?
How do I access the API?
How does Credence aggregate beliefs?
How should Credence outputs be used?
Is Credence a trading platform or investment advisor?
How do I access the API?
How does Credence aggregate beliefs?
How should Credence outputs be used?
Is Credence a trading platform or investment advisor?
How do I access the API?
See a Calibrated Forecast
Explore how Credence produces probability distributions that remain calibrated under changing market conditions.